I am moving The Reach blog here, in order to have better control of features and functionality on the installed version of WordPress. Thanks for your visits here and I hope you’ll be a frequent reader in our new location. I’ll be catching up there!

Feedburner posted this on their "Burning Questions" blog. Great overall data regarding podcasting. Interesting, though, that they state that they support more podcasting feeds than there are radio stations worldwide. Good piece of PR there, but while Feedburner is loved by all, let me sprinkle a little cold water on that number.

Each podcast is like a show. Not a radio station. So, while they host more than 44,000 podcast feeds – that's more like 44,000 shows on what would be somewhat less than 44,000 radio stations. Let's be generous and say that there are 24 shows per day on a 24 hour talk radio station. That would be more like 1,833 radio stations…..

Before you think I'm criticizing them, let me say, hosting feeds for 44,000 shows is huge. I congratulate them. Just wanted to do the math for them.

Read the report – it's a fantastic piece otherwise.

Steve Rubel, on the Micro Persuasion blog, asks if podcasting is evolutionary or revolutionary.  He compares it's impact to blogging, for which he is a professional spokesperson and model, so to speak.  He ends up in the evolutionary camp on podcasting, revolutionary on blogging, to no great surprise.

His argument is that podcasting is not very social, and blogging is.  A lot of discussion around Web 2.0 is around the social aspects.  I agree that podcasting is not social, but then again, neither is broadcasting.  It certainly has more social possibilities than traditional podcasting ever did, but social is probably not at the top of the list.  On the other hand, just because a trend is not social does not mean it's not revolutionary.

Podcasting is revolutionary!  It is revolutionary because of the perfect storm of portable hard drives with headphones (known as iPods, MP3/MP4 players, portable digital media players ), cheap bandwidth, RSS, and consumers being fed up with poor programming choices from media giants.

Some people have expectations of miracles in this trend of podcasting and the world to change overnight.  If it (a new trend) doesn't satisfy instant gratification needs, it is deemed a losing proposition.  My experience says that sea change comes like a Tsunami.  It starts with a violent crack way down below the surface.  You don't see it coming until it's almost too late.  Unfortunately, often it is too late for some.

But, the change comes….

Well, over at Media Swamp, we've got the rhythm down of doing the shows. Thanks to Gio for his willingness to crank out shows with me at 7a on Mondays. The system is in place, now just creating and/or "acquiring" new content to extend the breadth and value of the site.

Ok. Enough of the mainstream world. Let's talk about something relevant. What I call Xtreme Podcasting.

Recipe:

• Illiterate people groups (Oral Learners) with a desire to learn

• Relevant audio content that will change their lives

• No Internet connection

• MP3 players

Mix together using notebook computers in their country, heavy use of USB ports to transfer content to the MP3 players, and give to learners. Change lives.  Makes unlimited and exponential results.

We'll be working with a non-profit organization in a third-world country to distribute 500 MP3 players like this. Small FM transmitters will be used along with the players to transmit the content to close-by FM radios, so groups of people can learn together. This is important, because unlike the U.S., most other cultures in the world don't relate to something so self-centered and individualistic as listening with a pair of earbuds or headphones.

Maybe we should listen to them……

Wow. Charlene and Forrester stirred up some dust yesterday. Some responded and said – "Yeh – that's what I have begun to think", such as Andy Beal at Marketing Pilgrim – others, such as John Furrier at Podtech.net are drinking the Kool-Aid.

Now, since I'm in the podcasting business, I admit to have been drinking the Kool-Aid as well. Let me put this in perspective. I was shocked to read that some were jumping off the bandwagon a short 9 months after iTunes incorporated podcast reception into their iTunes code. One thing I give Steve Jobs credit for is thinking ahead. He didn't push this for a 9-month window of buzz, folks.

On the other hand, saying podcasting will change the world by the end of next month isn't a correct statement either. I think we're in for the long haul. RSS (Really Simple Syndication) isn't simple yet, so subscribing to podcasts isn't simple, unless you're using iTunes. It will become more simple with the launch of IE7, whenever that will be.

Vast change will take time. We all have busy lives – more time spent in cars, out of homes, out of offices- therefore portable media demands will rise accordingly. To ignore that fact in the long term is a bad move. Whether we'll call it podcasting in the future is completely beside the point.

Charlene Li's Blog pulls back the curtain on Forrester's opinion on podcasting to date: who's listening and what they're listening to. Forrester has consistently come in with the lowest estimates on podcasting – and that's fine – the older I get, the less I tend to believe everything I read, hear, or watch. I'm ok with their lower number estimates, although I think most podcast evangelists will have a heart attack over them.

At the heart of the issue is something I have said before and here someone else is echoing the sentiment. Time shift consumption of media with content we're already familiar with will be the main stream use of podcasting. Brand names that we know and love will become the most listened to or watched shows.

Charlene is quick to say that one shouldn't necessarily put podcasting on the backburner due to these lower estimates – instead, carefully choose your podcast strategy, in order to be most effective in the reach of your desired audience.

The Reach, Episode 1, is up and available on Media Swamp.  Listen and enjoy – we welcome your feedback!

National Public Radio is having TOO much success in podcasting, according to Wired News…at least from the local affiliates' perspective. So, does that mean podcasting is BAD? No, it just means that the consumer and the creator of the content (in this case, a show) is in control – not the radio network. Should NPR care? It may sound mean, but as long as they don't own the stations, I don't think they should. NPR should be celebrating the success of this new distribution model for their shows.

This is a tremendous shift of the medium and it leave behind those that will not embrace the change that is coming…

I've mentioned this concept several times on this blog and in other public comments, but I will discuss it again because the market warrants.  This goes for blogging as well….

Coming up with fresh, compelling discussions is difficult for the amateur podcaster.  First of all, you're just talking in the beginning.  Then, if it's interesting, people subscribe and listen and that will give you energy and motivation for a period of time.  But then the long haul shows up.

My contention is that people who speak on a regular basis (with different content each time or episode) will more easily adapt to the constant requirement to be 1st class.  These individuals could be public speakers (but not ones that have 3 speeches that they use all the time), educators, pastors/priests, politicians.  And, of course, radio talk show hosts.  Those that have trained themselves to create on a daily or weekly basis will survive the long haul.  The reason why daily or weekly is important is that the old adage "Out of sight, out of mind" is an absolute truth in the attention game.

I'm convinced that we will benefit from new creators of audio and video content that traditional media didn't want to take the risk on, but they most likely will be fewer and further between than we think today.  I could be wrong, but…..